As sad as it is, the 2009 fantasy football season has ended. A year as good as any, we saw surprises and we saw busts, we saw young stars rise and past stars falter, and all in all 2009 left me with the same outlook on next year as I had the year before—who really knows? For example, my starting roster as of week 1 this year: Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Hines Ward, Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, Dallas Clark, and Jamal Lewis. My roster in week 16? Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward, Chris Chambers, Thomas Jones, Jason Snelling, Dallas Clark, and Jerome Harrison. That lineup would be funny if I hadn’t won the championship with it. But hey, that’s the nature of fantasy football right? The draft is half the battle, making the right waiver moves and starts each week is the other half.
For now, it’s time to start thinking about the draft half of the battle for the 2010 season. Well, actually it’s only time if you’re a fantasy football loser like me. But nonetheless, before any offseason drama involving trades, injuries, surprise retirements, arrests, etc., I have formulated next year’s first round picks. These 12 are, to me, the best available picks as of the end of the 2009 season, despite the lack of predictability associated with the fantasy football offseason. Barring any major news involving any of these players during the offseason, which seems highly unlikely, this should be your 2010 draft first round. Enjoy the head start.
1. Chris Johnson—There is no doubt that Johnson proved his status as next year’s first overall choice. In an unbelievable season, Johnson proved that he can run, catch, and score with the best fantasy players I’ve seen in my lifetime, and if I have the first pick next year I’d be really excited to see what the kid can do. I still don’t believe the things I saw Johnson do in 2009, and yet I wouldn’t put it past him to do them again in 2010. The last time I was this excited about a fantasy prospect it was LaDainian Tomlinson—that’s saying a lot. Get your hands on Johnson or I will personally come and kick your shins.
2. Adrian Peterson—Peterson is like my fraternity; every year as the year goes on you sort of realize he’s just not that cool. Six of the last seven weeks of 2009 he failed to eclipse 4 YPC, and although he did find the end zone a fair amount, is that really enough to warrant a first overall selection? Myself and the fantasy football world seem to be unanimously voting no as of right now, and his fumble troubles during the season did not help his situation. Peterson is still a stud, and he is still sure not to disappoint his owners next year, but according to the analogy Chris Johnson is frattier.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew—I loved MJD before the 2009 season, and I feel the exact same way before 2010. He was a bit of a gamble this year that I guess you could say paid off, although if you missed the playoffs due to late season losses MJD may have been to blame. Despite his lack of production late in the season, however, I don’t anticipate it carrying over into next season. No one can overlook a guy who had 365 touches this past season, nor can you overlook a guy who scored 16 TDs. Let’s all be thankful that Fred Taylor joined the “no one could possibly ever care less about us” New England 78 headed running back team, because it opened the door up for a member of the newest generation of elite backs. I love MJD at three, but I don’t think you’d make me too angry (which you better not) if you drafted him at two.
4. Ray Rice—Rice is a guy with number one overall talent and perhaps would be up there if he did not lose TDs to Willis McGahee and occasionally Le’Ron McClain. 1339 rushing yards? Great. 702 receiving yards on 78 receptions to go with those yards? Orgasmic if such a verb is deemed appropriate, incredible if not. What is even better is that this season was just the beginning of what looks to be a great fantasy career (not to jinx it…). Baltimore is a run first team and as long as Joe Flacco is at QB he will likely serve to compliment the run, not the other way around. Everything looks to be coming together for an awesome 2010 for Rice, so sorry Matt Forte but the fourth overall pick should be glad to replace you for this coming season.
5. Steven Jackson—Fact: when Steven Jackson goes in the ocean, he doesn’t get wet… the ocean gets Steven Jackson. Okay so it sounds better when it’s about Chuck Norris, but you get what I’m saying—this guy is on another level. He made fantasy owners happy in countless weeks without even scoring a TD based on total yards alone, and this was on a 1-15 team! I believe he is the best running back save maybe Chris Johnson in the NFL based on pure talent, and were he not subjected to playing on the wrong side of blowouts week after week his numbers would be out of this world. Still, there is no way Jackson scores only 4 TDs this season, and so I will still continue to support his being picked in the top five. The Rams just have to realign their center and find their chi, and Jackson will be a gift to his owners in 2010.
6. Drew Brees—Every year controversy exists over where you draft the first QB, but for the sake of this mock draft I’m not favoring any specific league formats. So without those biases, this is the appropriate position to draft the best QB in the league. Sure, Aaron Rodgers scored more fantasy points than Brees in 2009, but wouldn’t you rather have the confident Brees at the head of your fantasy team? I know I would. Nothing against Rodgers, but Brees is the kind of guy who wins you championships… I know from experience, dude. I’m predicting more than 34 TDs for Brees in the high powered Saints offense in 2010, so I think Brees is worth the first round pick next season.
7. Andre Johnson—And so, we have the first receiver of 2010! Is there really any doubt that Johnson is worthy of this position, though? 1569 yards and 9 TDs came up huge for his owners this past season as his connection with Matt Schaub really came to fruition, and these numbers may only get better as the running back situation settles down in Houston in 2010. An up and coming team with a superstar QB-WR connection looking to flirt with the Manning-Harrison or Brady-Moss duos bodes well for your mid to late first round pick next year.
8. Aaron Rodgers—Rodgers’ skills out of the pocket are his one real advantage over Brees—he scored 5 rushing TDs this season alone, more than Steven Jackson which I find humorous but also kind of sad. Regardless, Rodgers is a great pick here because this season was no fluke—he is now a member of the QB elite alongside Brees, Manning, and Rivers. Again, everything depends on your league format and willingness to draft a QB in the first round, but based on talent alone I certainly think this is where Rodgers belongs.
9. Jamaal Charles—2009 fantasy heroes? Well you can just ask Zach but I think you can already guess his answer. Kansas City waved goodbye to Larry Johnson, who was to fantasy football as Jay Mariotti is to Around the Horn—unbelievably irritating. Suddenly Charles stepped in and showed us just how bad Johnson really was, notching five 100-yard games in his final eight and totaling an inhuman 658 rushing yards over his last four. He can catch the ball as well for PPR formats. Charles obviously impressed me enough to jump straight up into the first round this year—of course these types of picks are always risky, but show me a conservative drafter and I’ll show you a perpetual loser.
10. Michael Turner—Okay, so I actually dropped Turner before my championship this year—yes I won the championship with my first rounder on waivers (no need to worship me). But that doesn’t mean I’ve lost faith in this guy’s ability to carry a fantasy team. Two years ago Turner exploded onto the scene faster than Tiger Woods on a Filipino hooker and brought many of his owners unexpected victory. The very next year injuries and inconsistency plagued him and made him a disappointment. But why do I still like him so much? Firstly, this guy has lower-body power unlike many other backs I’ve seen in the NFL. His legs are the size of my entire core and he can just power through defenders like it’s nothing—this is a feature that Turner possesses naturally and it sets him that much far ahead of other backs. The other big reason—10 TDs through week 10 this year before his injury problems started. Finding the end-zone can make any back a fantasy star—just ask 2004 Jerome Bettis owners about his week 1 five carry, one yard, three TD performance. Turner seems to have a knack for getting across the goal-line, and that increases his value immensely. These factors put together have me sold on taking Turner in the first round again in 2010.
11. Ryan Grant—I was not particularly high on Grant before 2009, and his somewhat average start had me patting myself on the back like a large loser. But take a look at this: Grant’s YPC weeks 1-4 were 3.8, 3.3, 3.8, 4.6 respectively. Weeks 14-17? 6.9, 4.6, 6.9, 4.6. Whether this was a result of Grant really figuring out how to run the ball or defenses paying so much attention to the dangers Rodgers posed that they forgot about Grant, it really doesn’t matter—it sold me on Grant being a late first rounder this year. In such a high powered offense Grant is sure to get goal-line touches, as he did this year finding the end-zone 11 times. And if anyone saw Grant’s TD run against Seattle, you’d know that he has unbelievably surprising breakaway speed that warrants better big play consideration in the 2010 draft than many other backs. I believe in Grant for 2010, and I think the kid has a great fantasy future ahead of him.
12. DeAngelo Williams—It’s a good feeling when a split backfield still doesn’t concern you enough to take a back out of the first round. Williams is clearly talented and in a great running system, averaging over 5 YPC once again this season. He received 216 carries even with the 3.5 games he missed due to injury, and notched 1117 rushing yards and 7 TDs, extremely solid numbers. Williams impresses every time he touches the ball and possesses the big play capabilities to break big TDs pretty regularly. I know Jonathan Stewart finished up the season strong, but I’m not worried. If I’m picking around 12, Williams still seems like a no-brainer.
